Odds & Outs – Simple Poker Math

Learn how to count your outs, estimate your chance to improve, and compare it to the price you get from the pot. No hard math needed.

What are “outs”?

Outs are the cards that improve your hand to a likely winner.

  • Flush draw (four of a suit) → 9 outs (nine cards of that suit left).
  • Open-ended straight draw (e.g., 6–7–8–9) → 8 outs (5 or 10 completes).
  • Gutshot straight draw (e.g., 6–7–9–10 needs 8) → 4 outs.
  • Two overcards (e.g., A-K on 9-6-2) → up to 6 outs (A or K), but some may be dirty (see below).
Clean vs. dirty outs: a “clean” out makes your hand best. A “dirty” out helps you, but can still lose (e.g., you make a small flush vs. their higher flush). When unsure, discount a few outs.

Quick trick: Rule of 2 and 4

  • On the flop (two cards to come): equity ≈ outs × 4 → 9 outs ≈ 36% (true ~35%).
  • On the turn (one card to come): equity ≈ outs × 2 → 9 outs ≈ 18% (true ~19.6%).

It’s fast and close enough to guide decisions at the table.

Common draws and their odds

From the flop to the river (two cards to come)

  • 4 outs ~16.5%
  • 5 outs ~20%
  • 6 outs ~24%
  • 7 outs ~28%
  • 8 outs ~31.5% (OESD)
  • 9 outs ~35% (flush draw)
  • 12 outs ~45% (combo)
  • 15 outs ~54% (strong combo)

From the turn to the river (one card to come)

  • 4 outs ~8.7%
  • 8 outs ~17.4%
  • 9 outs ~19.6%
  • 12 outs ~26.1%
  • 15 outs ~32.6%

For combo draws, don’t double-count the same card twice (e.g., 9 flush + 8 straight − 2 overlap ≈ 15 real outs).

Pot odds: the price you are getting

Pot odds compare the cost to call with the total pot you can win.

Pot odds % = call ÷ (pot + call)

If your equity (chance to improve) is higher than your pot odds %, calling is usually good (ignoring future betting).

Example 1 – Flush draw on the flop

Pot: 1,000. Opponent bets 500. You call 500 to win 1,500 → pot odds = 500 ÷ 1,500 = 33.3%.

Your draw (9 outs) ≈ 35% by river → Good call.

Example 2 – Turn decision

Pot: 2,400. Opponent shoves 1,200 on the turn. Call 1,200 to win 3,600 → pot odds = 33.3%.

Turn equity with 9 outs ≈ 19.6% → Fold unless implied odds are huge.

Implied odds (and reverse implied odds)

  • Implied odds: extra money you expect to win later if you hit. Best when stacks are deep and opponents pay off.
  • Reverse implied odds: money you may lose even when you hit (e.g., small flush vs. higher flush).
Use implied odds when: you are in position, opponent is sticky, and your draw makes the nuts (top straight/flush).

How to count outs (the right way)

  1. List cards that definitely make you strong (clean outs).
  2. Account for blockers (seen cards reduce your outs).
  3. Remove dirty outs (that complete their better hand).
  4. Add combo outs carefully (avoid double-counting overlaps).
  5. Apply the Rule of 2 & 4 to estimate equity.

Dirty outs examples: small flushes on boards that can give an opponent a higher flush; straights on paired boards (they can fill up).

Fast examples you’ll see a lot

A) Nut flush draw (9 outs)

You: A♠ Q♠ · Board: 6♠ T♦ 2♠ — By river ≈ 35%; turn only ≈ 19.6%. If the price is ≤ 33% on the flop, calling is fine.

B) Open-ended straight draw (8 outs)

You: 8♣ 9♦ · Board: 6♠ 7♥ K♣ — By river ≈ 31.5%; turn only ≈ 17.4%. Discount outs if a higher straight is likely.

C) Combo draw (15 outs)

You: A♠ J♠ · Board: T♠ 9♣ 2♠ — 9 flush + 8 straight − 2 overlap ≈ 15 → by river ≈ 54%. Great semi-bluff spot.

D) Two overcards (up to 6 outs)

You: A♦ K♣ · Board: 9♥ 6♠ 2♦ — Might be 6 outs, but if villain has A-9 your Ace is not an out. Discount.

Omaha note (important)

  • You get 4 hole cards, and must use exactly 2 of them + exactly 3 board cards.
  • You cannot “play the board”.
  • To make a flush, you must hold two cards of that suit.
  • Outs are often bigger, but more dominated. Count clean vs. dirty carefully.

Common mistakes (and quick fixes)

  • Counting suits as ranking (they don’t in standard poker).
  • Calling a draw without checking pot odds.
  • Over-counting outs (double-count overlap, ignore dirty outs).
  • Chasing weak draws out of position with bad pot odds.
  • Forgetting kickers decide many one-pair pots.
  • Ignoring reverse implied odds on paired boards and weak flushes.
Quick fix: if your (discounted) equity is lower than your pot odds %, fold — unless you have a clear implied-odds reason (deep stacks, likely to get paid). With strong combo draws, consider a semi-bluff.

Tiny cheat sheet

Flop → River

Outs × 4 ≈ chance by river

4=16% · 8=32% · 9=35% · 12=45% · 15=54%

Turn → River

Outs × 2 ≈ chance on river

4=8.7% · 8=17% · 9=19.6% · 12=26% · 15=33%

Pot odds

call ÷ (pot + call)

Call if equity ≥ pot odds (plus a bit for rake/position).

Tips

Prefer nut draws; discount dirty outs; position pays.

Odds & Outs — FAQ

What is an “out” in poker?

A card that improves your hand to a likely winner.

What is the Rule of 2 and 4?

A shortcut: on the flop use outs × 4 (to the river), on the turn use outs × 2.

How do I use pot odds at the table?

Compute pot odds %, estimate your equity from outs, and call if equity ≥ pot odds (adding a small buffer for rake/position).

What are implied odds?

Extra chips you expect to win when you hit. They are higher in position, with deep stacks, and when your draw makes the nuts.

Do suits rank in poker?

No. Suits don’t rank in standard poker; only card ranks and hand classes matter.

Hand Ranks

Best → worst with tie-breaks.

Texas Hold’em Rules

Step-by-step how to play.

Beginner Guide

Quick wins & safety.